Lyra’s decentralized BTC options market predicts a 20% chance of prices surpassing $70,000 by the end of April.
Lyra recently listed options expiring on April 26, allowing traders to speculate on price action before and after Bitcoin’s reward halving expected in mid-April.
There is a one in five chance that bitcoin (BTC) will surpass $70,000 by the end of April, according to options data from decentralized marketplace Lyra Finance.
“Lyra markets imply about a 20% chance that bitcoin will hit new all-time highs (trades above $70,000) by April 26,” Nick Froster, Lyra founder and former trader, told CoinDesk in an interview of Wall Street options.
Lyra traders had positioned themselves correctly for bitcoin’s recent move above $50,000. Their latest view – the low probability of a record move above $70,000 by the end of April – may come as a surprise.
That’s as bitcoin rose 35% to $52,000 in three weeks, its highest since late 2021, showing robust bullish momentum fueled by strong inflows into U.S.-based spot ETFs.
The consensus among cryptocurrency traders is that bitcoin could see further gains as fiscal policy in the United States remains the most stimulative in years, offsetting higher interest rates. The rumored four-year halving of Bitcoin’s blockchain mining reward is also scheduled for April, and the likelihood of global recession has fallen to its lowest level since December 2021, supporting risk-taking in all corners of the financial market.
Options are derivatives that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call option gives someone the right to buy an asset, while a put option gives the right to sell. How options are priced at any given time offers clues to where sophisticated traders see the market heading in the coming weeks and months.
According to DeFiLlama, Lyra is the largest decentralized crypto options venue in the world and accounts for 50% of global decentralized exchange (DEX) options volume of $32 million in the past 24 hours.
The protocol recently listed bitcoin options with an expiration date of April 26, allowing traders to bet on price action before and immediately after the reward halving, which is scheduled for mid-April and is timed to reduce the pace of expansion of the BTC supply. 50%.
“First trading activity [in the April 26 expiry] focused to the upside, with call buyers lighting up the $64,000 and $70,000 strikes,” Froster said.
