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Chart analysis – working week
In the previous week, the upward pricing continued, as a result of which the price updated the previous week’s maximum of $4476
Based on the chart, as well as upcoming events, I expect to see the continuation of upward pricing with the subsequent exit of the price above the resistance level of $ 4590
What happened last week?
On Thursday, August 31, data on the basic price index of personal consumption expenditures for July were released:
Core PCE Price Index = +4.2% YoY (expected +4.2% / prev. +4,1%)
On September 1, labor market data for August were released on Friday
The number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (Nonfarm Payrolls) increased to 187 thousand. (expected. 170 thousand / prev. 157 thousand,)
Unemployment rose to 3.8% (expected 3.5 /pre-3.5%).
Last week, the data released on personal consumption expenditures did not justify the fears of investment banks – the increase in the inflationary component occurred in accordance with the forecast.
Further, the market positively assessed the release of data on the labor market, which showed its attenuation, which is the goal of the Fed in the fight against inflation. As a result, the market has increased the probability of a pause in the interest rate hike at the September Fed meeting to 92%.
What to expect this week ?
Wednesday, September 6
Indices of business activity in the service sector
16:45 UTC +3 Composite/Services PMI (August)
17:00 UTC +3 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)
Thursday, September 7
15:30 UTC +3 Initial Jobless Claims (number of applications for unemployment benefits).
The current week will be a “warm-up” after the summer period with reduced trading volumes. Volatility will contribute to the release of data on business activity in the service sector, which may set the beginning of the market movement vector in September.
Later this month, the market benchmark will be on the release of CPI (consumer price index) data on 13.09 and the decision on the Fed’s % rate in a week on 20.09
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