The Bitcoin price rally will likely not end as institutions run out of OTC BTC supply


  • On Wednesday, the price of Bitcoin broke the $63,000 mark with total liquidations approaching $300 million.
  • BTC could extend gains to $65,000 ahead of an expected surge in demand on public exchanges.
  • In a context of frothy FOMO, investors should pay attention as markets are at high risk of correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) price may cover more ground to the north as BTC sinks among OTC counters run dry. This is likely to push institutions to look to public exchanges, with the resulting buying pressure likely to provide an edge to the pioneer cryptocurrency.

Institutions run out of supply of Bitcoin OTC

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to post an impressive rally this week, surpassing two key milestones, the $55,000 level on Tuesday and the psychological $60,000 level on Wednesday. The latest move saw nearly $300 million in total settlements.

With the surge, on-chain market intelligence firm Glassnode revealed plummeting levels of over-the-counter (OTC) BTC supply, which could force institutions to purchase Bitcoin from public exchanges. The resulting demand pressure could push the price of Bitcoin above $61,000.

#The probability of Bitcoin reaching $61,000 is high given the supply constraints on the OTC counter.

OTC desk supply is at its lowest level in 6 years, which will push buying $BTC on the public exchange.

Institutions are here for real people!

— Mikybull Crypto (@MikybullCrypto) February 28, 2024

Capital inflows from institutions remain the key factor as the asset management sector seeks exposure via ETFs. As we reported on Wednesday, the appeal of BTC ETFs has surpassed that of gold, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas, who noted that there’s a decent chance that Bitcoin ETFs’ assets under management (AUM) could surpass that of Bitcoin ETFs. gold in less than two years.

Gold’s pain is the store of value gain of Bitcoin ETFs Smackdown… news from me on how gold in the gutter is like icing on the cake for Bitcoin fans who just got to witness the largest ETF launch ever. Decent chance of bitcoin ETFs outpacing gold ETFs in aum in less than 2 years with…

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 26, 2024

With the week seeing explosive price action accentuated by strong capital inflows, Bitcoin’s realized cap saw a near-complete recovery, reaching a value of $467.2 billion. According to Glassnode data, the current value is just 0.22% below the peak of $468.3 billion.

In the midst of Bitcoin’s epic price surge, an online analyst at X, @DaanCrypto, noted: “Bitcoin [price] has not seen a correction greater than 5%” for over a month. This has been since it surpassed $38,500. This shows the resolve of the bulls, with investors keeping their appetite for profit booking in check.”

Bitcoin Price Outlook as BTC Runs Out of OTC Stock

Bitcoin price remains above the psychological $63,000 level, with the potential for extended gains amid rising momentum. The chances of BTC retrieving its peak of $69,000 recorded on November 10, 2021 remain likely as the BTC halving rapidly approaches.

In order to challenge the all-time high of $69,000, Bitcoin price must cross and close above $63,329, the midline of the supply zone that extends from $62,905 to $65,664. As it stands, the price of Bitcoin is about 10% below its peak price.

From a technical perspective, the odds are still favorable for the upside despite the high levels of correction risk seen from the overbought state indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Spent Profit Output Ratio (SOPR) greater than 1 shows that the owners of the spent outputs are in profit at the time of the transaction.

The northward tilt of the RSI indicates growing momentum, strengthened by the strong presence of bulls in the market. This can be seen with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO), which remain in positive territory, accentuating the bullish thesis.

BTC/USDT daily chart

On the other hand, the RSI position above 70 shows that BTC is already massively overbought and at high risk of correction, especially with the SOPR position above the 1 threshold.

If bears take over the market, Bitcoin price could retest the $55,000 mark or extend to the $50,000 mark.

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