Expectations for the fall season. 🤔#opinion
1. First, let’s take a look at the September-November statistics.
As we can see, September is not the worst month in terms of returns for crypto, and on the contrary, October and November are the 4th and 1st highest return months of the year!
2. Now let’s go back to the market cycle (https://t.me/incrypt0/5735), from which we can assume that Bitcoin is now in the “denial” phase, while Alta is still in the “depression” phase.
3. what could act as the main drivers of market growth?
– The acceptance of bids for the spot BTC ETF;
– Bitcoin halving in April 2024.
4. Market sentiment is mostly bearish, with most retail traders expecting Bitcoin’s price to continue to decline towards $20,000 and agreeing that the acceptance of BTC ETF bids will be pulled back closer to the halving date.
Given all of the above, I believe that applications will be accepted earlier, after which the market will go against expectations and start to frontrun the upcoming Halving. Closer to the Halving month, a correction of this initial upward movement will begin, which is usually where a bull market starts.
It should also be noted that the Halving date coincides well with the stock market processes (end of the rate hike and QE cycle, recession in the economy, US presidential election), where the main events will take place in Q1-2 quarters of 2024.
Markets move cyclically, the most interesting months are ahead, be patient and do not make hasty decisions
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