Data from popular decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket shows that the chances of an XRP ETF being approved in 2025 have increased to 70%.
It is noteworthy that this survey was launched four days ago. Since then, the crypto community has continued to actively bet on the likelihood of the XRP product being released this year. In particular, this last figure represents a huge increase of 20% in the last 24 hours.
Additionally, a much older survey launched early last month asked about the XRP ETF’s chances of approval by July 31, 2025. This poll currently indicates a 49% chance.
Optimism around XRP ETF
Meanwhile, some members of the community even said that by the end of the first quarter of the year, the probability of the last poll showing a 70% chance will increase to 100%.
Continued confidence in the XRP ETF is bolstered by the arrival of a cryptocurrency-friendly US government and the appointment of US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins.
Notably, the SEC is currently reviewing four applications for the XRP ETF. Notable asset managers that have launched these XRP products include 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital and WisdomTree.
Bitwise opened the platform in October 2024, and others soon followed. Community members believe that XRP investment products have a better chance of being approved by the new SEC leadership than under Gary Gensler.
Other Altcoins See Significant Opportunities for ETF Bet
Interestingly, the XRP ETF is not the only product that crypto market participants are betting on. The Polymarket platform provides current betting odds for Dogecoin, Litecoin and Solana ETFs.
Notably, the Solana ETF has an 82% chance of approval in 2025, up 32% from the last day. This survey was published at the same time as a survey that currently shows 70% positivity for the XRP ETF. In other words, this indicates greater confidence in the Solana ETF and XRP ETF among community members.
Meanwhile, Dogecoin and Litecoin currently see lower odds of getting their ETFs approved at 23% and 42% respectively, suggesting market participants view the 2025 release of their ETFs as a distant prospect.
Bloomberg ETF analyst reaction
Commenting on the ongoing betting frenzy, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed surprise that people can now bet on the approval of multiple altcoin ETFs. “What a country” – he said.
He added that he’s not sure if he agrees with these ratios, but for the record, there are no active 19b-4 filings for any of these ETFs yet, and typically take 240 days for approval, which is after July. However, he acknowledged that the SEC’s new leadership could have acted more quickly.
