Bitcoin’s price recently broke out of a bullish trend, signaling a potential rise to $80,000. However, despite this positive technical setup, the biggest obstacle preventing the leading cryptocurrency from reaching a new all-time high is the behavior of its own holders.
BTC holders are actively selling off their assets, creating a barrier to Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Bitcoin investors are greedy
In recent days, investors have begun selling their Bitcoin assets, as evidenced by the rise in the realized profit to loss ratio. This metric, which measures the profitability of coins moved on the chain, has been rising over the last ten days since breaking out of the negative zone.
Historically, a jump in this ratio tends to precede a correction because it indicates investors are taking profits rather than holding their positions for further gains. An increase in realized profits signals selling pressure in the market. This behavior could slow down or even reverse the bullish momentum Bitcoin needs to reach a new all-time high.
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Bitcoin’s macro momentum is also causing problems. The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, recently broke into greed territory.
As the price of Bitcoin rises, more investors are motivated by the desire to make profits rather than continue to HODL and maintain further profits. This shift in sentiment towards greed can lead to increased selling pressure.
When the market leans too heavily toward greed, it often results in a pullback as holders begin to sell off their holdings. This greed-driven behavior is a key factor in Bitcoin’s inability to maintain upward momentum, as it creates a self-fulfilling cycle of selling pressure that prevents the cryptocurrency from reaching new heights.
BTC price forecast: fall back
Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,623, attempting to close above critical resistance at $63,724. A breakout remains unconfirmed until BTC reclaims $65,000 support, making the expected rally 35% higher to 80,000 dollars uncertain.
Given current market conditions, Bitcoin could face a potential drawdown below $61,846, which could result in the $60,000 support level being lost, delaying the expected rally.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast for 2024/2025/2030
However, if Bitcoin manages to overcome the bearish pressure and regain $65,000, it could trigger a significant rally. Although confirmation of the pattern with a 35% rise will result in a new all-time high, the maximum amount BTC can rise to is $68,500, but still manages to refute the bearish thesis.
