As Bitcoin (BTC) moves through its current bull market cycle, it is approaching an unusual milestone.
According to For veteran trader Peter Brandt, this cycle could soon mark the longest stretch in Bitcoin’s history without hitting a new all-time high (ATH) after the halving. As Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, the market is left wondering: Will it soar to new heights or is a new ATH eluding it?
Boom and bust cycles
Brandt estimates that during the 2011-2013 cycle, Bitcoin barely stumbled after its first halving, quickly breaking the $15 barrier in just eight weeks. That cycle was characterized by a quick recovery and explosive growth.
But the terrain has become harsher over time. In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin plummeted 27% after the halving, falling to $474 before slowly regaining momentum. It took 24 weeks for Bitcoin to break through the $790 barrier and chart a new course for higher peaks.
The 2018-2021 cycle brought its own twists and turns. While the 10% drop after the halving seemed moderate, it still took Bitcoin 25 weeks to reach a new high of $13,859. The journey through this cycle showed that while Bitcoin had matured, its path to recovery was slower, albeit more steady.
Fast forward to the current 2022-2025 cycle, and Bitcoin’s trajectory is even more uncertain. The 26% drop after the halving mirrors the 2015-2017 cycle, but the market has stalled 23 weeks later with no new ATH in sight. The $73,804 hurdle looms, but can Bitcoin make that leap?
Exponential decline threat: $30,000 drop predicted
As traders watch the current Bitcoin cycle unfold, Brandt represents A more alarming concept: Exponential Decay, citing his April 26 blog post. According to Brandt, each cycle since 2011 has lost about 80% of the previous cycle’s strength. The 3,191-fold increase in the 2009-2011 cycle declined sharply in subsequent years. By 2018-21, the increase had dropped to just 22-fold. And now Brandt predicts that the current cycle could grow by only 4.5-fold.
With Bitcoin already peaking at $73,835 in March 2024, Brandt suggests there’s a 25% chance the cycle has peaked. If so, the market could slide back into the mid-$30,000 range — a sobering possibility for those who were expecting a repeat of the explosive gains of previous cycles.
The Waiting Game
Despite these concerns, the future remains unclear. According to The Crypto Basic report This month, Brandt points to an expanding triangle forming on Bitcoin charts. However, the pattern is incomplete.
Without a breakout in either direction, the market remains in a holding pattern, leaving traders wondering whether the next big move will send Bitcoin higher or lower.
Brandt’s cautious approach, based on classical charting principles, contrasts with the optimism of some who believe Bitcoin is poised for a rally to $70,000. He is holding off on making trades until a breakout confirms the trend.
For now, the market can only wait, watching closely for signs of that decisive moment that will determine the next direction of Bitcoin.
