Bitcoin (BTC) remains on track to hit close to $50,000 around next year’s block subsidy halving event, says analyst Filbfilb.

In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of the DecenTrader trading suite shares his opinion on the BTC price action.

Filbfilb: Bitcoin has given a “strong indicator” of bear market breakout

Filbfilb believes that Bitcoin has truly consolidated its exit from a sub-$30,000 trading range, which characterized the market for much of 2023.

Having broken through a multitude of resistance levels, the question for Bitcoin bulls now is how the price action will result in the halving.

There will be less than five months until the event, which will take place in April 2024, and Filbfilb maintains that a “reasonable” bullish target could be just below the $50,000 mark. This echoes assumptions from his previous interview in early September, when BTC/USD was trading just below $26,000.

That said, a drawdown could come first, testing the morale of those who might already be accustomed to the rising BTC price.

Read on to find out what the coming months could hold for Bitcoin from a technical price perspective.

Cointelegraph (CT): Do you think BTC has definitively broken out of its previous range below $30,000? How would you measure the strength of the various moving averages (MAs) that previously acted as resistance?

Filbfilb (FF): The 20, 50, 100, and 200-week simple moving averages are around $30,000 right now. They are also at the top of the trading range below $30,000 and above $25,000, in which Bitcoin spent approximately 200 days.

The two combined would suggest that there will be buying interest below and together they are a strong indicator of a breakout and reversal of the two-year bear market.

CT: What is your timeline for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF and what do you think the event would affect the price?

FF: My opinion on the ETF remains the same: it will continue to be delayed for as long as possible, but a spot ETF is inevitable. The main actors are wasting no time, so it remains a question of when.

Given his position on market manipulation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see approval intentionally coming from the left.

CT: Where would you draw the checkpoint on the BTC price chart now? What resistance and support (R/S) levels are you looking at?

FF: This really depends on the deadline. Recent years suggest that $26,000 is an important control point; over the last six months, I would suggest closer to $27,000.

There is resistance between $38,000 and $41,000; A lot of volume was traded there before many of the implosions we saw among crypto entities. Some people will leave and others will consider redeploying capital into a new environment. This is a clear area of ​​contention.

CT: In our last interview, you were considering a BTC price increase as part of the pre-halving action in Q4. Has that perspective changed much since then? Some are concerned that the first quarter of 2024 could have the opposite effect.

FF: I think it’s fair to say that we’ve seen that price appreciation in the fourth quarter. The cyclical model implies that the first quarter of 2024 could decline before halving again.

Related: Funding Rates Reflect BTC Price of $69,000: 5 Things to Know About Bitcoin This Week

In my opinion, a 61.8% Fib retracement of the bear market (between $46,000 and $48,000) would be a reasonable technical target assumption from a bullish perspective.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.