Ethereum price is consolidating above the 100- and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend.
Given the launch of ETH spot ETFs, upward momentum is expected in the medium term, targeting the upper boundary of the wedge.
Technical analysis
Author: Shayan
Daily chart
A close look at Ethereum’s daily chart shows that after breaking above the critical 100-day moving average at $3,354, it entered a period of sideways price action with no clear direction.
This phase confirms the breakout and suggests a balance between buyers and sellers in the market.
However, with the official launch of the ETH spot ETF and a net inflow of $106.6 million on the first day, interest in buying Ethereum is expected to increase, paving the way for a continuation of the bullish rally. In this scenario, the main target for buyers is the upper boundary of the wedge at $3.7k.
To summarize, the price is within a critical range limited by the upper boundary of the wedge ($3.7K) and significant support at $3.4K. A bullish breakout seems more likely.
4 hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum buyers struggled to break above the previous major swing high of $3.5k due to prevailing selling pressure, leading to a period of sideways consolidation.
During this consolidation, price formed a rising wedge pattern.
Typically, this pattern suggests a bearish reversal. However, given the bullish sentiment in the market, demand is expected to resume, which could lead to a breakout above the wedge.
However, in the event of an unexpected bearish breakout, the price could enter a short-term pullback phase before embarking on another impulsive bullish move. This bearish scenario could offer participants a better opportunity to accumulate ETH at lower prices.
Chain analysis
Author: Shayan
With Ethereum’s price recovering from below $3k and the official launch of the Spot ETH ETF, analyzing investor behavior using on-chain metrics can provide insight into the reasons behind the recent recovery and point to future trends.
The chart below shows the Ethereum Exchange Reserve metric, which measures the amount of ETH held in exchange wallets. An increase in exchange reserves typically indicates that investors are depositing their coins into exchanges, likely to sell. Conversely, a decrease indicates hoarding by holders as coins are withdrawn from exchanges for long-term storage.
Recent data shows that the exchange reserve ratio has been falling rapidly in recent weeks, especially following news of a potential spot ETF launch in July. This trend suggests that many large investors have taken advantage of the recent market correction to buy the dip. These investors are now pulling their coins off exchanges, reducing the available supply and signaling long-term holding intent. This reduction in available supply, coupled with the growing buying interest generated by the spot ETF launch, sets the stage for a potentially sustained rally in the coming months.
