Following a sell-off in Bitcoin (BTC) earlier in the week, the flagship cryptocurrency appears to be struggling to break the $60,000 mark.
Notably, concerns are growing over the asset’s price trajectory, with the analyst predicting more challenging times ahead if Bitcoin continues to hover around current levels.
In this context, analyst Ali Martinez warned in his X post on August 31 that the Bitcoin community should be wary of a possible long-term bear market.
Martinez emphasized the importance of the “warm supply realized price,” which is currently at $66,000. He explained that Bitcoin’s price usually signals a positive trend when it stays above this level. Conversely, if the price drops below $66,000 and stays there, it could be the start of a long bear market.
Martinez also illustrated how the price of Bitcoin has interacted with the warm offer strike price over the past few years. According to the crypto analysis platform Glassnode According to the data, Bitcoin is currently struggling to regain this critical level.
The Bitcoin warm supply realized price is calculated based on the average purchase price of coins that have been inactive for one to three months, and it highlights recent market activity. Monitoring this metric can provide insight into market trends and investor confidence. It also serves as a valuable tool for predicting future price movements.
Potential Bitcoin Bull Scenario
Notably, the forecast comes as Bitcoin enters September, a month that has historically been bearish for the digital asset. However, the pseudonymous crypto analyst Lizards Stockmoney X’s August 31 post suggested that September could be a good opportunity for Bitcoin investors.
The expert acknowledged that September has historically been a month of mixed emotions for traders and investors. On the one hand, it has often been viewed as a period of volatility, with markets typically fluctuating as the summer trading lull gives way to the final quarter of the year.
The expert identified three crucial years: 2020, 2023, and 2024. The analysis revealed an intriguing possibility by comparing market movements around September 1 in these years. The observed patterns suggest that September can often act as a turning point in bull markets, where prices either consolidate before a significant rally or begin to falter, marking the beginning of a decline.
In many bull markets, September has become a month of consolidation, with prices stabilizing before entering a strong upward trajectory in the final quarter of the year. This pattern was particularly noticeable in 2020, when after a turbulent September, the market experienced a remarkable fourth-quarter rally, fueled by restored investor confidence and strong corporate earnings.
On the other hand, September could also signal the end of the current bull run. The logic is that the market may be expecting a correction after a prolonged rally. September’s historical reputation as a tough month for stocks could amplify these risks, especially if investors start taking profits ahead of the expected uncertainty in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $59,081, with a daily loss of 0.3%. On a weekly timeframe, BTC has fallen by almost 8%.
All things considered, Bitcoin’s push towards $66,000 means the asset must first break the $60,000 resistance level. However, continued consolidation below that level could dampen investor momentum, potentially leading to further losses.
Disclaimer: The content of this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
