Key Reasons Why Bitcoin Is Still Not Hitting $100,000 According to Capriole Investments Founder

Crypto analyst and founder of Capriole Investments fund Charles Edwards has taken to social media platform

He mentioned the key factors that he expects to drive the price of BTC upwards in the coming months.

“Why aren’t we at $100,000 yet?”

Charles Edwards posted a thread on X to share the reasons he believes are standing between Bitcoin and the long-awaited $100,000 price right now. This price increase has not yet occurred despite the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

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So far, he said, Bitcoin is up only 50% since January, when the SEC gave the green light to ETFs, and many are wondering why BTC hasn’t risen more, Edwards noted. Bitcoin is changing hands slightly above $71,000 at the time of writing.

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Key factors for a strong rise in BTC in the future

First, Edwards shared, “We are fighting a force majeure: long-term headline selling.” According to his tweet, the number of long-term Bitcoin wallets (those that have been held for more than two years) has decreased from the all-time high of 57% reached in December 2023 to 54% today. Although this is only a 3% drop and may not seem impressive, it still comprises 630,000 BTC, which is 300% of the total BTC supply that Bitcoin ETFs have purchased in the US since January.

The second reason shared by the analyst is that the market has not yet seen the true impact of the halving. In April, when the event took place, daily Bitcoin issuance plummeted by 50%. Edwards believes that over the next year, the delta between ETFs buying Bitcoin and BTC being mined will grow much larger. Financial institutions need time to review the situation and allocate funds to purchase Bitcoin; Therefore, spot ETFs are likely to remain the leaders in BTC purchases at least through this year, he says.

Overall, Edwards named three factors that he believes are necessary for Bitcoin to start rising sharply. These are higher average daily ETF purchases, lower sales by long-term holders, and growth in US liquidity.