The Beige Book document, which is followed by the economic information announced at regular intervals by the FED and disclosed by the cryptocurrency market, has finally been published.
Here are highlights of important information in the document:
- Most of the twelve Fed regions reported little or no change in economic activity compared to the previous Beige Book period.
- Seven regions reported little or no change in overall employment levels, while two regions described a tight labor market.
- Nearly all Fed regions reported cooling labor markets.
- 6 regions experienced slight or modest price increases. 2 recorded modest increases.
- 5 FED regions said that the overall price increase decreased compared to the previous period.
- The possibility of a decline in interest rates has been cited by many as a source of optimism.
- The possibility of a decline in interest rates has been cited by many as a source of optimism.
- Concerns about the labor market, weakening overall demand and the 2024 political cycle were cited as sources of economic uncertainty.
The market is trying to calculate how much the Fed will cut interest rates this year. The current price is 138 basis points for this year, down from 161 basis points last week. Interest rate cut expectations for the March meeting fell from 80% to 54%.
While the numbers appear more or less in line with declining inflation, most signs still point to a robust U.S. economy. Announced today, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow growth forecast for the fourth quarter was raised from 2.1% to 2.4% on the back of strong retail sales.
*This is not investment advice.
