As of August 19, 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $58,061, with a 24-hour intraday range of $57,918 to $60,191. The crypto asset has a trading volume of $20.7 billion, and its market cap is $1.14 trillion. Several timeframes are showing a steady downtrend, with key resistance levels remaining strong and technical indicators signaling weak buying interest.
Bitcoin
The 1-hour chart of Bitcoin paints a grim picture with a recent sharp drop from $60,271 to $57,844. The drop was marked by a significant increase in volume, suggesting a potential capitulation. However, the lack of strong rallies since that drop suggests that buying momentum remains weak. Since then, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with smaller moves reflecting indecision in the market.
The 4-hour chart reinforces the bearish outlook, showing Bitcoin encountering significant resistance at $61,809 before suffering a sharp sell-off to $56,138. Despite the recovery attempt, the overall trend remains bearish. The spike in volume during the sell-off, followed by a drop in volume during the recovery, highlights the lack of strong buying support.
The daily chart shows Bitcoin’s steady downtrend from a peak of $70,016 continuing, with the latest significant drop taking the price close to $57,800. Volume analysis shows strong selling pressure as high volumes accompany major declines, while green days show weaker volume, indicating sellers are dominant.
The oscillator readings further reinforce the bearish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.8, indicating a neutral zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) level at -1,181.7 is giving a sell signal, while other indicators such as the Stochastic (63.5) and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) (-45.6) remain neutral. Momentum remains the only bullish sign, indicating a potential buy signal, although it is not backed up by the broader price action.
Moving averages across all time frames reinforce the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Every significant moving average, both short-term and long-term, is signaling a sell. The 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are below current price levels at $58,974 and $59,883, respectively, indicating downward momentum. Even the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), typically an indicator of the long-term trend, is significantly above the current price, further suggesting that the bearish trend is deeply entrenched. The alignment of these moving averages highlights the continued weakness in Bitcoin’s price action.
Bull’s Verdict:
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, there is potential for a short-term rebound if Bitcoin can break the $58,800-$59,000 resistance with heavy volume. Momentum indicators suggest that there may be a window for opportunistic buying, especially if a reversal pattern emerges on the daily chart. However, any bullish outlook should be approached with caution, with tight stop-losses in place.
The bear’s verdict:
The overall technical outlook for Bitcoin remains firmly bearish across all time frames. With persistent downward pressure, weak recovery attempts, and strong key resistance levels, the likelihood of further weakness is high. Traders should be prepared for continued weakness, especially if Bitcoin fails to reclaim critical support levels or if selling volume increases.
