In his latest video titled “Bitcoin Must Do This Now,” renowned crypto analyst Dan Gambardello addressed his 368,000 YouTube subscribers while analyzing the current Bitcoin market dynamics regarding the critical resistance levels that Bitcoin is currently testing. Gambardello emphasized the importance of these levels for both short-term price movements and broader market metrics.
Why Bitcoin Should Go Bullish Now
Gambardello’s analysis begins by highlighting the importance of the short-term holder value, which currently stands at $63,600. He singled out this metric as a key momentum indicator, emphasizing its role in determining the immediate bearish or bullish nature of the market. “Bitcoin is just $2,000 away from the short-term holder value, which is currently at $63,600.” According to Gambardello, this is a critical momentum indicator for investors to monitor.
Gambardello also maps out the various resistance zones that Bitcoin must overcome to signal a bullish reversal in the market. He points out that Bitcoin is operating just above the 20-day moving average on the daily chart during his analysis. However, the closeness of the daily candle close left the situation quite timid. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages were also discussed as significant barriers that need to be overcome to confirm the bullish trend.
In addition to these moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels form another cornerstone of his technical analysis. He elaborates on the possibility of Bitcoin running into a lower high resistance area, which could lead to either price consolidation or a downward correction if these levels are not broken.
Gambardello also ventured into macroeconomic territory. He points out that the prevalence of recession fears could hint at broader economic shifts that could impact the broader crypto market. “The algos on X are bombarding me with recession messages, recession data, recession charts. There’s probably a rally because there are actually a lot of indicators that the market is going to crash,” he explained.
Moreover, the crypto analyst pays close attention to the 20-week moving average, a level he describes as a historically significant marker for distinguishing between bull and bear markets. Failure to hold above this moving average, he points out, often precedes bearish trends, while support at or above this line can herald bullish conditions. “Failure to rise above the 20-week moving average is what Bitcoin does when it enters bear markets,” he notes.
In terms of momentum, the analyst looked at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, both of which he mentions currently suggest Bitcoin is well positioned for a potential move higher, given the consolidation patterns and cooling periods seen recently.
However, Bitcoin should be moving higher now. “Bitcoin really took off in the last cycle when the RSI was around 54 […] If you go back two cycles, Bitcoin was constantly around 53, 50, close to 54 before each time taking off […] “Consolidation in the RSI, then boom. So in terms of momentum, we are where we need to be. But the move we need is now up,” the crypto analyst warns.
Another warning sign could be a prolonged decline below the 20-week moving average. “We need to see Bitcoin above that 20-week moving average. […] If we see resistance […] “We should expect that we can go below $50,000 very quickly. It can happen very quickly,” says Gambardello, noting this as a necessary condition for the start of a sustained bullish phase.
From a bullish perspective, Gambardello is looking for a breakout above $63,700. “We’re looking for bullish confirmation to break out of that whole range, and in fact it’s currently around $63,000 or around 63,700 — that’s the range, it’s not even a big range for Bitcoin to make a move, but that’s what we’re seeing,” he notes.
Overall, it’s a $50,000 or $70,000 question, as Gambardello puts it about X: “A break above could trigger a mini-run to $70K. A failure could mean new lows around $50K.”
At the time of publication of this article, BTC was trading at $
