Bitcoin (BTC) trading has caused investor concern over the summer as the world’s leading cryptocurrency entered a period of hitting a series of lower lows after recovering to lower highs.
This BTC price action casts doubt on the idea that the cryptocurrency market’s bull cycle will continue into 2025, but recent trading has once again raised the possibility that the downtrend will end.
Bitcoin’s rise above $61,500 on Wednesday and then above $62,000, according to analysis by Ali Martinez, a renowned Crypto X expert, signals a return to a bull market, raising the possibility that BTC could once again aim for $70,000 on Uptober.
Did Bitcoin just find the trigger for its rally?
Additionally, the trigger may have occurred on the afternoon of September 18th, when Bitcoin reacted strongly and forcefully to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
In fact, shortly after the announcement was made, the cryptocurrency skyrocketed from around $60,000 to over $62,000. The subsequent correction was not strong and lasted long, indicating that BTC may soon find a more stable footing at a higher valuation.
Such a move would be a significant step on Bitcoin’s path back to $70,000, which while an $8,000 rise may seem ambitious, is certainly within reach given that the coin has already surpassed the even higher $73,000 mark in March 2024.
Resumption of Bitcoin’s Uptrend Not Guaranteed
On the other hand, BTC still faces a number of problems. Although the cryptocurrency managed to break through and remain above $62,000, its price at the time of publication of $62,141 is hovering close to the nearest resistance level.
If Bitcoin breaks this level decisively – staying and soaring above $62,194 – it will be well positioned to test higher resistance levels that await just below $63,000 and just above $64,000.
A further major barrier level could prove particularly important as BTC ends its trend of lower highs followed by lower lows if it rises above it and ideally rises above $65,000 before the next major correction.
Finally, while $70,000 seems likely in October, Bitcoin could be in for some sort of great filter in November.
Could November ruin Aptober?
The US presidential election is seen as a major driver of volatility in both the cryptocurrency and stock markets at the time of publication and could prove particularly influential for digital assets.
Kamala Harris’ victory is unlikely to be well received by the crypto community due to both the Democratic Party and the Biden administration’s track record in the industry. In fact, the backlash could be severe enough to undo Aptober’s gains.
On the other hand, a Trump victory could revive any October uptrend or even give Bitcoin a second chance at a rally if it fails to break out of its prolonged stagnation.
The Republican candidate tends to be more popular in the crypto community and tries to support the industry, at least during his election campaign.
BTC price chart
Whatever the future holds, Bitcoin’s current state in the cryptocurrency market is best described as mixed. BTC has had a particularly successful year so far, even hitting new all-time highs in March.
Moreover, even after the recent turbulence, it remains at 46.18% in the green zone on the YTD (YTD) chart.
However, as best illustrated by the six-month chart, recent trading has not been as smooth, with BTC actually down 3.23% over that period.
Changing the narrative once again, the shorter time frame again shows a more optimistic picture. The world’s major cryptocurrency has been on a roll lately, up 2.05% over the last 30 days and 6.60% over the last seven days to today’s BTC price of $62,141.
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