Data from Polymarket shows that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s lead over his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has weakened but remains dominant.
The chances of a former president being impeached twice dropped from 66.9% to 54%, according to the data.
Meanwhile, Harris’ chances have increased significantly, from 33.5% to 46.1%. The shift reflects changing market sentiment as Election Day approaches on November 5th.
Polymarket, built on the Ethereum blockchain, allows its users to buy and sell stocks with different real-world outcomes by betting on the stablecoin (USDC) rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies.
A Polymarket player known as Theo is betting more than $30 million on Trump to win, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Iowa Poll, Epstein Records
The shift in momentum comes as the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results bode well for Harris.
Harris leads Trump in Iowa by three percentage points, according to Ann Seltzer, a renowned American pollster known for her accuracy.
Harris maintained 47% support among likely voters, compared with Trump’s 44%, according to the poll. This represents a major departure from a September poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead.
Seltzer told Newsweek that the same methodology was used this year as in 2016 and 2020, two years later when Trump won Iowa.
Meanwhile, The Daily Beast recently published transcripts of author Michael Wolf’s 2017 interviews with convicted trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.
Epstein, who spoke at length during interviews about his decade-long friendship with Trump, died in August 2019 in a New York prison where he was awaiting trial.
Trump and Harris have different positions on cryptocurrencies
The candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation are becoming increasingly relevant to investors. Trump has become an ardent supporter of cryptocurrency.
He even publicly pledged his support for cryptocurrency during an event in May at Mar-a-Lago. The Trump campaign’s decision to accept cryptocurrency donations further strengthens this pro-crypto stance.
Harris’s approach to cryptocurrencies was more measured. In September, she indicated that her administration would support cryptocurrency as part of a broader strategy to improve economic competitiveness.
Although her statements were less emphatic than Trump’s explicit support, Harris received the support of Ripple (XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated more than $11.8 million to her campaign.
Larsen told CNBC he believes the Democratic nominee will take a very different approach to cryptocurrency than President Joe Biden, who was criticized for choosing Gary Gensler to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
As government surveys and Polymarket forecasts continue to show volatility, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reflects the uncertainty of the political situation.
This is evidenced by the recent price drop to $68,000. According to the latest data, the capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market fell by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion.
Bitcoin fell as low as $67,300 but managed to rise above $68,000 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) is no exception, falling to the $2,400 level.
