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“I’m not afraid of computers. I’m afraid of their absence. “
– Isaac Azimov
Bill Gates expects that for a decade, people will no longer be needed “for most things.”
We join the era of “free intelligence”, he explains in which the examination in all subjects will be commoditized – for example, the best doctors and teachers will be.
“This is very deep and even a little scary,” Gates told Harvard magazine, “because it happens very quickly, and there is no upper border.”
To listen to the former Google CEO Eric Schmidt says that this is even worse: “Over the next year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”
For five years, he adds, we will reach artificial general intelligence, after which AIS will be as smart as the best expert in any field – and for six years we will achieve an artificial super Intelligence, where one AI is smarter than the sum of all human intelligence.
“There is no language for what is happening with the arrival of this,” he warns.
But I would not have been too worried too much – they remain predictions about the future and the future, as Yoga Berra tells us, it is difficult to predict.
In addition, evidence from present It suggests that people will not be so easily replaced.
For example, the founder of the cursor said this week that the editor of the AI code is now writing one billion lines of code per day.
This is a lot – almost certainly more than the general lines of the code written by each software developer in the United States gathered together.
And yet, according to the bureau of labor statistics, at least 1.6 million software developers are still working in the USA.
It can change, who knows?
But if AI already writes a billion lines of code without any noticeable influence on employment, I suspect that this indicates that human programmers have many years of work to look forward to.
Another indicator: subscriptions to Microsoft Copilot were reported that were stagnant for a whole year, which suggests that Copilot is indeed a “companion AI” for human workers (like a company and not replacement for them.
In the same way, Openai reports that now in ChatgPT there are now more than 400 million active users of the weekly – almost 5% of the world’s population!
But I still have to print this news newsletter myself.
LLMS does not seem to perform any other jobs: “We find the muffled influence of AI on employment from compensation,” one of the academic research reports. “High -ranking professions experience relatively lower demand compared to less subject to professions, but the result of increasing the productivity of the company increases general employment in all professions.”
Another study also showed that, despite the widespread LLM widespread, “the Chat -Botts of AI did not have a significant impact on profit or registered hours in any profession.”
So even the authors of information ballots are still safe.
And even if not, we will probably find something else.
Benedict Evans recently spoke about the long history of new technologies leading to higher, and not lower employment, referring to examples such as the invention of writing machines and adding machines: “What did this do for stationery? People hired a lot more clerks. Automation plus Jevons Paradox meant more jobs. ”
Evans illustrates this moment, noting that the huge floor of human calculators, on which Jack Lemmon worked in ApartmentSince then, it was replaced by one spreadsheet.
But today, much more people are used using electric tables than when the addition of machines were used when.
In some places more anxiety is that there is Too much Work and Not enough People: For example, Greece presented a six-day working week last year “due to double dangers of the reducing population and the lack of qualified workers,” as the guardian said.
In the same way, at least one of the reasons for the constant lack of affordable houses in the United States is that there are not enough people available to build them.
This can change, of course.
ChatGPT can soon write this news newsletter faster and better than I, I noticed, not without trepidation, that it gradually becomes better for the proofing of individual offers for me.
And even builders can ever be afraid for their work.
Bank of America analysts predict what will be Three billion Humanoid robots roam the planet by 2060, doing everything from the treatment of dangerous materials to the care of the elderly.
2060, however, is still far away, and, most likely, we (like Jack Lemmon), by that time we will find more things.
Meanwhile, let’s be busy checking the graphs.
How everything goes so far:
A simple but amazing table: exactly one month after the day of release, Nasdaq is 3.2% higher. This … not what I expected. In addition, the day of liberation was ONE A month ago ??? He feels like 10 years.
However, not everything is fine in the markets:
Gold rose, the dollar decreased, and oil decreases greatly. This seems to be more appropriate yesterday’s news that the tariffs are worth the 900 million dollars per quarter, and this morning Japan is not interested in the trading transaction currently proposed.
Increased increase:
The US dollar tends to move in ten -year trends. Since Japan now threatens to unload its huge supply in the United States, it is easy to understand why the next trend can be reduced.
Brandmauer of the economy:
This morning it is reported that the United States added 177,000 jobs in April, which is encouraging, but, of course, it looks back, according to Mark Zandi: “The labor market remains a firewall between continuing growth and decline. But … Brandmauer feels fragile. If the trade war will not be escalates in the next few weeks, the firewall will come down, and the recession will begin. ”
I look forward to:
Torston Slok warns that the data about this morning were collected a week after the announcement of the tariffs on the day of exemption and that the correlation with the data of the survey of the University of Michigan suggests that employment should become lower and “perhaps not negatively.”
Do not forget the little guys:
Apple can withstand tariffs even at a price of 1 billion dollars per quarter, but small enterprises, depending on imports from China, probably cannot.
Congratulations on the class of 2025:
This table from the Atlantic shows that, contrary to the historical norm, the recent college graduates now have a higher unemployment rate than the average American. (I would probably still exchange places with them.)
At least it’s cheaper to stay at school:
Bloomberg John Auters notes that Covid has broken a long -standing trend at the cost of the college, which is now heading below.
Most likely a recession:
Polymarket chances noted that it seems strange, given what the promotions are doing. One analyst evaluates that shares prices are currently estimated only at 34% of the probability of recession. The assessment of Constance Hunter, the chief economist of the economic intelligence unit, which establishes the probability by 80%, is even more inconsistent.
Not a prediction:
The latest data from the Global Tracker of the Vizion Ocean booking shows exports from China to the United States by 48.6% compared to a year earlier. “Perhaps the children will have two dolls instead of thirty,” the president said in response this week. “Maybe two dolls will cost a couple of dollars more expensive.”
For me, this sounds quite a recession – but perhaps he is right that the boats are filled with “things that we do not need.”
