With the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs on the horizon, industry insiders are pointing to a potential launch date before July 4. The impending launch follows VankEck’s Form 8-A filing, which Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas called a “good sign” for a July 2 launch.
Quinn Thompson of Lekker Capital suggests that the current bearish sentiment among cryptocurrency investors could be a bullish indicator. In a recent post, Thompson predicted a period of lull as sellers tire, followed by a “slap in the face” moment when they realize their outlook is too bearish.
This could be triggered by positive ETH ETF spot flows at launch or competition among ETF issuers to offer the lowest fees. Thompson boldly predicts that “Ethereum will hit $7,000 and Bitcoin will make its first attempt at $100,000 by the November election.”
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan predicts that Ethereum ETF products will attract $15 billion in net inflows in their first 18 months on the market. Hougan’s forecast is based on data from Europe and Canada, where crypto ETFs have established markets.
While $15 billion is significantly less than the $56 billion that investors have accumulated in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, Hougan still believes that figure would be a “historic achievement.” However, he cautions that initial net outflows from Ethereum ETFs are “highly likely” as investors exit Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust.
Singapore-based QCP is looking to the launch of its Bitcoin ETF for clues. “If the approval of the Bitcoin ETF is any indication, we could see a similar 60% rally from here,” the company said in a recent note. That would mean Ethereum would trade around $5,430 in the months following the ETF launch.
Joe Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of crypto infrastructure firm Consensys, predicts a “wave” of demand for ETH, which will likely lead to a supply squeeze and push prices higher, according to Lubin. Institutions that already have exposure to Bitcoin ETFs “will likely want to diversify into this second approved ETF,” Lubin said.
Analysts at research firm Bernstein expect Ethereum spot ETFs to drive ETH prices up 75% to $6,600. They estimated this figure by noting how the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January spurred a 75% rally in the weeks that followed. “We expect a similar price movement for ETH,” Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrote in a recent report.
*This is not investment advice.
