Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below its realized price, a key metric that indicates the average purchase price of all coins in circulation. The decline dampened hopes of a quick recovery to the $72,000 level, as a break below the realized price usually indicates growing selling pressure.
Given that Bitcoin’s price is currently $68,608, continued trading below this key threshold could indicate an extended bearish trend. But how low can BTC fall?
On-chain support for Bitcoin becomes weak, whales are selling
On October 20, BTC fell below the strike price, and in three days the value of the cryptocurrency fell from $69,022 to $66,611. Later, on October 28, the strike price of Bitcoin fell below the spot value. A day after that, BTC rose to $72,708, sparking speculation that the coin could soon surpass its all-time high.
However, this was not the case. CryptoQuant data shows that the realized price of Bitcoin is $69,352, which is higher than its current value.
Typically, when the realized price is below the market price, it acts as support in the chain, implying a potential upward move. But now that it is higher, BTC’s chances of returning to the $72,000 level in the short term seem limited.
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Another indicator that Bitcoin may have a hard time recovering is the net flow of large holders. This indicator takes into account the activity of addresses occupying from 01.0% to 1% of the total number of circulating coins.
When the net flow of large holders is positive, crypto whales accumulate and prices can rise. However, according to data from IntoTheBlock, the net flow has decreased, meaning that over the past seven days, whales have sold more coins than they bought.
If it holds, this current state will coincide with Bitcoin’s realized price position for another potential decline.
BTC price forecast: pullback to $66,000 expected
Bitcoin’s current price is down 6% from its recent local top, putting it on the verge of breaking below the rising channel on the daily chart.
This pattern, formed by two rising trend lines, shows resistance at the top and support at the bottom. Bitcoin is currently hovering near the support line at $67,941.
If BTC falls below this support, it could fall to $66,575 with further declines to $62,826 on a more bearish outlook.
Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Forecast for 2024/2025/2030
Conversely, if the realized price of Bitcoin falls below the current value, it could signal a trend reversal. In this case, BTC could rise to $72,770, potentially setting the stage for a new all-time high.
